Thursday, January 30, 2014

A Better Way to Measure Red Zone Effectiveness - Red Zone Average (RZA)

A pet peeve of mine has always been Red Zone % as a way of commentators of gauging a team's effectiveness in the Red Zone.  The problem with Red Zone % is that it places equal value on scoring either a TD or a FG.  Now I could be wrong, but the last time I checked, TDs were worth more than FGs.  Red Zone Average (RZA) is a better metric because it places the appropriate value on what the offense did (TD = 7 pts, FG = 3 pts, no score = 0 points) and it is computed by taking the total points scored in the Red Zone divided by the number of trips to the Red Zone.

Red Zone Average (RZA)  =  Total Points in Red Zone
                                                     # of Chances in Red Zone

Let's look at a simple example below:

Team
Chances
TDs
FGs
Total Points
RZA
Scores
Chances
Red Zone %
Team 1
10
7
0
49
4.90
7
10
70.0
Team 2
10
0
9
27
2.70
9
10
90.0